By Garrett Hinners
BANKER (Nashville SC vs. Real Salt Lake)
It is #NoJuice week which means nothing but plus money plays for Week 10. Leggo…
The Banker is going down Sunday in the Nashville SC vs Real Salt Lake match. Nashville is playing its second game inside Geodis Park and that makes all the difference here. I was there for the home opener and I’ve never been to a louder, more enthralling atmosphere. It is easily the best footy venue in the USA, but I digress…
Nashville SC had one of their best attacking games, analytically speaking (xg 2.02), vs the Philadelphia Union last week and Philly are arguably the best defense in the entire MLS (averaging 0.93 xga/g) . Now, RSL, who have been suspect on defense even if the recent results do not show it, come into town and have to try to hold off a NSC attack that could not be happier to finally have some home games.
Nashville have only scored 9 goals so far this season, but their expected goals stat is approaching 14.5. I expect that gap to close a little and a team like Salt Lake, on the road, could be just the spot to get some positive regression. They have a goal differential of -6 when they travel and have given up 76% of their goals conceded when they are away from Utah. They are even out performing their expected goals against (xga) numbers by a small margin right now which may only increase their chances of giving up goals on Sunday.
I like riding this Nashville team after a good statistical game the week before and I am doing it here.
For the parlay I swear I am not being lazy, but the books have to stop giving us NYCFC TTs at such a parlayable price. I am seeing New York City FC TT o1.5 at around -175 or a little worse and that is simply ridiculous given their current form and their opponent in Sporting KC. Kansas City has fallen off mightedly this season and their biggest issue is defense when they are on the road. This NYCFC TT is an automatic parlay piece for this game.
The whole state of New York is getting love here as I am backing the next best statistical team, offensively speaking, after NYCFC and that is the New York Red Bulls. The Red Bulls are off to a flying start, particularly on the road, and the underlying numbers are loving this team currently. Portland is a poorer team when they travel and here they are going cross country while not having scored a goal in three straight games. I think the Red Bulls easily take care of business here and am finding their moneyline around -180 or so.