By Garrett Hinners
BANKER (New York Red Bulls vs. CF Montreal)
The New York Red Bulls, through five games, average the most shots on target in the league and are sitting on 1.8 goals a game. They have the most chances created and they are second in big chances missed. In a match where they’re hosting Montreal this is a prime positive regression spot.
Montreal’s offense is much more tame from an analytical perspective, but they absolutely make their chances count. They, too, are averaging 1.8 goals a game and have scored seven in their last two games. Only one of their games has seen less than 3 goals.
Frankie Amaya will be suspended for Red Bulls and he has been one of their best players so far. He is second among all players in tackles per match, a true holding midfielder who puts out fires and provides service forward as evident by his two assists on the season already. The Red Bulls offense should not be hurt so much with his absence, but it could provide Montreal more opportunities as that midfield presence will be sorely missed on defense.
Red Bulls are probably going to need to score multiple goals to get points from this one so I’m banking on the total here.
If you have been following along with these articles you know I love a good under 3.5 for a parlay piece. This week I have got two. I love Chicago Fire’s defense this season and they played a nil-nil draw to open the season with Orlando City. Orlando is struggling to create anything with purpose and Shaqiri, along with Czichos, are both questionable for the Fire.
We are going to jump to Sunday to also add the Charlotte FC game as they host a limping Atlanta United. For Atlanta, Araujo will still be out and Josef Martinez got his knee reevaluated this week so I doubt we see him as well. Missing two pieces of a three headed attack is not ideal and while I do not want a side in this one I cannot see four goals from limited attacks either due to a lack of talent or key attacking pieces missing.