By Garrett Hinners
BANKER (Orlando City vs. LA Galaxy)
Week 4 of MLS already and I have the first multi-unit article play of the season! I am laying two units in a match-up between L.A. Galaxy vs Orlando City….
Orlando has looked just okay so far this season as they adapt to life without Dike and Nani among some other players who left over the winter. Their record is 1-1-1 with their loss being to a bad Cincinnati team. They have played once on the road so far this season and they were held to just a 0.16 expected goal (xG) total in Chicago. They’re coming into L.A. to face the Galaxy, who, in their one home game so far, held the prolific NYCFC offense to just under 1 xG.
L.A.’s defense has improved so far from the lows of last season. They’re averaging an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.17 overall, with the majority of that coming from their recent Seattle Sounders loss where went over their xG (2.07) to win 3-2, however L.A. did walk away from that one with a higher expected total (2.22). That xG has been on full display early with the Galaxy hitting 1.75 or better in all three games so far. Galaxy opened up as a +115 favorite and, at the time of writing, have been bet down to -110 and I only expect that number to get worse as the weekend approaches.
Galaxy’s consistent offense and an improved defense makes me love their moneyline vs an Orlando side still trying to figure out what works best for them. There’s certainly a talent gap here, and at home give me the Galaxy to win as this week’s banker.
For a parlay I have found a great one! We are doing a “both teams to score” (BTTS) parlay on two matchups that love goals and is plus money…
Toronto FC’s defensive problems are on full display here three games in. They are tied for second worst with an xGA of 6.7 so far this season. They are hosting D.C. United who sit middle of the pack in terms of xGA with 4.4. Both sides have the offense to hurt the other one and I do like this a lot, even though D.C. United have not had a BTTS hit in any of their three games so far. However, they had an xGA of over one in each game and BTTS has hit in every Toronto game so far. The cherry on top is this has hit in their last six head to head meetings.
FC Dallas has the Portland Timbers coming into town and I’ll start with this: BTTS has hit when Dallas hosts Portland in their last nine head to heads. You have to go back to October, 2014 to find a loss on this. I touched on Dallas on the BetWithUs MLS Betting Hits Show last week. They are a very good offensive team, but do have defensive liabilities. Portland is leaky on the road, but they will look to transition quickly when Dallas turns the ball over. I expect Dallas to have the majority of the possession and have a decent chance of taking something from this game, but Portland will not be shut out.