BANKER (CSU Bakersfield vs. Long Beach State)
Long Beach St has been one of my favorite teams to bet on over the course of the second half of the season. They have been one of the best teams in the nation ATS wise in conference play and they get a favorable matchup against a Cal State Baskersfield team who can be dreadful on offense at times. CSUB is currently ranked 263rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, 351st in offensive effective field goal percentage, 353rd in 3-point percentage and 337th in 2-point percentage so they really struggle to score based on every major offensive category. Long Beach St has made a killing this year at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line as they are ranked 30th in the nation in foul rate drawn on offense.
CSUB really struggled with defending without fouling as they are 357th (2nd worst in the country) in defensive foul rate. Long Beach St will also have the 2 best players on the court with Colin Slater and Aboubacar Toure. Slater is a 5th year senior who can beat anyone off the dribble, finish at the rim, and knock down 3s from anywhere on the court. He is automatic offense for LBSU and think he will have a strong game today. Toure is a forward/center for LBSU who has really come on over the last month and a half. He has scored in double figures in 11 of their last 16 games and can make a huge impact on the offensive and defensive glass. The first time these 2 played, CSUB covered the 1H and then faded late in the 2H as they ended up losing by 9 points. I think Long Beach St will get off to a much better start in this game as I don’t think CSUB has the offensive firepower to keep up. Score Prediction: 36-28 LBSU 1H
Rolling with a few blue bloods here for my parlay of the day and the first leg will be Villanova. Villanova has been the class of the Big East this season and now they get a matchup with St Johns. Two teams with very conflicting styles. Villanova can play at any style and adapt to their opponents which is why they are so good year in and year out. Nova is a very well coached and solid defensive/fundamental team who does not make a lot of mistakes. St Johns is a team who wants to play as fast as possible in a helter skelter type game and I do not think they can take down a team line Villanova with that style. St Johns plays at one of the fastest paces in the country and struggled defensively. I think Villanova is going to use that pace against them and will be able to get out in transition for easy buckets and foul opportunities. I don’t know about the -6.5 spread, but I do not see Villanova losing here. Score Prediction: 81-73 Villanova.
Baylor is another team who is primed to make another run in March Madness. They are not nearly as good as their national championship team from last season, but they are still very solid and will be dangerous in post season play. In this game, they face an Oklahoma team who is very good defensively but simply cannot score the ball on offense. Oklahoma has had multiple big 12 games this year played in the 50s and 60s and really struggle to score as they lack a true number one scoring threat. They typically score by committee and Baylor has been excellent defensively this year for the most part, so I don’t expect Oklahoma to shoot the lights out. I think Baylor will get the job done here in an ugly conference game which should be low scoring, so I think Baylor is another excellent parlay piece for tonight’s game. Score Prediction: 71-58 Baylor.