BANKER (Jacksonville St. vs. Lipscomb)
Jacksonville St is a very solid team out of the Atlantic Sun conference, but they come into this game struggling a bit, as they are only 1-3 in their last 4 games. That might be why this line is a bit lower than expected as the full game spread is only -4 when I expected it to be around -7. Jacksonville St has been a solid offensive team this season as they are ranked 64th in offensive effective field goal percentage, and 6th in the country in 3-point shooting as a team. More importantly, they are facing a Lipscomb team who has been terrible defensively. Lipscomb is ranked 340th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 266th in defensive effective field goal percentage, 352nd in defensive 3-point percentage, and 346th in defensive turnover rate so they really don’t do many things well on defense. In their first meeting this year, Jacksonville St was a nearly double-digit favorite but found themselves in a 14-point hole at halftime.
They then had a nearly 20-point comeback and stormed back to win the game thanks to a 54-35 second half performance. I think they will be able to channel that performance into the first half tonight as this is an angle I like to frequently hit in rematches when one team has a large second half comeback in the first meeting. The bottom line here is that Lipscomb is an extremely bad defensive team and I do not believe they are going to be able to stop Jacksonville St in any capacity. Jacksonville St has also been solid on the road in the 1H of their conference games as they have outscored their opponents by an average of 10 ppg in their last 3 road games. I think we see a high scoring game here and JSU will go into the break with a sizable lead. Score Prediction: 41-32 Jacksonville St 1H
Usually for these parlays I do big +money plays with underdogs or teams close to a Pk but tonight I found some value on larger favorites. Wofford is a team out of the Southern Conference who has run very efficient offense this season. They are currently ranked 91st in offensive adjusted efficiency, 37th on offensive effective field goal percentage, 22nd in offensive 2-point percentage, and 12th in free throw shooting so they are a solid offensive team. They go up against a Citadel squad who plays a very interesting fast and up-tempo style of basketball. They try to get a shot up almost as quickly as possible every possession and basically try to outscore you and their average time of possession is up this year compared to years past and they are still 22nd in adjusted tempo. I think Wofford will be able to score at will here vs a weak Citadel defense and expect Wofford to take care of business here as they have done well vs the bottom feeders in their conference. Score Prediction: 74-67 Wofford
Vermont is a team out of the American East conference who has been dominating their competition this year but are coming off a very surprising and almost shocking OT loss to a very bad Hartford team. Vermont had slim hopes for an at large bid if they were to lose in their conference tournament, but those hopes are almost slim to none now however, I think this is the perfect bounce back spot vs a very inconsistent New Hampshire team. UNH is coming off a solid win Vs UMBC for their second win in a row and the first time they have won back-to-back games since late November. UNH is a team who lacks athleticism and has not been solid on defense. Vermont is currently ranked 36th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 4th in offensive effective field goal percentage, and 4th in offensive 2-point percentage. I think Vermont will be highly motivated coming off their first conference loss this season and I expect a dominant effort here. Score Prediction: 85-71 Vermont.