BANKER (Wake Forest vs. Duke)
Wake Forest has been an absolute cash cow ATS this season thanks to their two super star transfers in Alondes Williams from Oklahoma and Jake Laravia from Indiana St. Wake Forest has improved dramatically compared to last year as they are currently 20-6 and 10-5 in ACC play. They are currently 5th in the ACC standings but are only 1.5 games out of 1st with a huge game on the road in Cameron Indoor against Duke tonight. Wake Forest has played very well on the road this year specifically in the 1H of those games as they handled Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, NC State, and Florida St rather easily. Even in their road losses, they led at the half against Louisville and Syracuse and stayed within 6 points in the 1H vs Virginia and Miami. I know Duke is the class of the conference and a potential national title contender, but I really believe the Demon Deacons have a chance to keep this game close.
Wake Forest is greatly improved on offense this year, mostly due to the 2 players I mentioned earlier, as they are currently ranked 51st in overall adjusted offensive efficiency, 9th in offensive effective field goal percentage, and 3rd in the nation in offensive 2-point percentage. They have also been solid on the other side of the ball as they are also 43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, 29th in defensive effective field goal percentage, and 32nd in defensive 2-point percentage. I don’t necessarily expect Wake Forest to pull the upset here, but I do think they keep this game relatively close, especially in the first half. Wake Forest has the revenge factor here and they are coming off a disappointing home loss to Miami, so I expect their best effort. Score Prediction: 39-37 Duke 1H
Texas AM is another team, like WF, who is much improved this year, but they have really struggled over the last month and a half as they have now lost 8 SEC games in a row. Granted, 4 of those losses were against ranked teams and they went 4-4 ATS in those 8 games as well so they have not been playing as bad as it may seem. In this game tonight, they face a Florida team who has been beating up on some bad teams in the SEC. In their last 9 SEC games they have gone 6-3 straight up but only 4-5 ATS including 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. Their wins in that stretch have come against UGA, Ole Miss, Missouri, Vandy, Miss St, and USC. Those are literally the bottom 6 teams in the SEC along with Florida and Texas AM. TAMU has played a much harder schedule lately and I think they will be able to get the job done at home here vs a relatively untested Florida team.
Villanova is having another solid season out of the Big East, but the bigger story tonight is Providence who is currently 21-2 and ranked 8th in the country. However, Providence has not been playing as well as their record may indicate and have had a lot of luck to get to this point as well. They needed OT to defeat a lowly DePaul squad in their last game and have played a lot of close games to this point that they were able to squeak out. Villanova has been peaking at the right time as they are 12-2 in their last 14 games and are also 5-1 on the road during that stretch as well. The line also tells the story here as Providence is the higher ranked team with the better record yet are 4/4.5-point underdogs on their home court? It doesn’t make much sense and I may be on Villanova spread later tonight but for this parlay, I am just rolling with Villanova ML as I think they get the job done tonight.