BANKER (Purdue vs. Michigan)
Purdue has been one of the more impressive teams in the country this season as they come into this game ranked 3rd in the country with a 21-3 record. Purdue has been getting it done with their impressive offensive attack as they are ranked number 1 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, 2nd in offensive effective field goal percentage, 3rd in 3-point percentage, 8th in 2-point percentage, and 7th in offensive rebounding percentage. In the first matchup between these 2 teams, Michigan gave one of their best efforts of the season as they covered the spread and got a huge game from Hunter Dickinson with 28 points but didn’t get much help from his supporting cast. I think Purdue will do a much better job of containing Dickinson this time around which will force other Michigan players to step up.
Michigan has struggled to shoot the ball at times this year as they only rank 135th in 3-point percentage, which is not very good by Michigan’s standards. They are also coming off a very lackluster game vs Penn St where they barely escaped with a 1-point win and only scored 58 points on 31% shooting. They did most of their damage from the free throw line as they were 19-22 at the charity strike but I don’t think they will be shooing that many foul shots in this game. Purdue has done a good job at defending without fouling as they are ranked 16th in the country in lowest defensive foul rate. I think Michigan is going to struggle shooting the ball outside and are going to need another substantial effort from Dickinson to keep this game close. In the first matchup Michigan shot 62% from 2-point range and 44% from 3 and still barely covered their nearly double digit spread. I think they will regress from the field this time around and I expect Purdue to take advantage. Score Prediction: 78-71 Purdue
Iowa has always been a solid team out of the big 10 with a high-powered offense and this year is no different. They come into this game with a 15-7 record and now will face a Maryland team who has really been struggling over the last few weeks. Maryland has now lost 3 games in a row and are just 3-8 in their last 11 games. Maryland has really been struggling offensively as they have only topped 70 points in 3 of those games. This is going to be a problem as they try to keep up with an Iowa team who is currently ranked 10th in overall adjusted offensive efficiency, 2nd in lowest turnover percentage, and 4th in lowest block percentage so they really do a good job of taking care of the ball. Maryland is only ranked 330th in defensive turnover rate so they don’t force many turnovers at all and then on the other side of the ball, Maryland is ranked 248th in offensive effective field goal percentage, 265th in 2-point percentage, and 222nd in 3-point percentage so they have really struggled to score. Maryland covered the first matchup between these teams, and I expect a much better effort from Iowa and think they escape here with a 6–8-point win. Score Prediction: 81-73 Iowa.
Texas AM-CC has been a very solid mid major this season as they come into this southland conference matchup with a with a 16-7 record and currently sit 4th in their conference standings. They will face a New Orleans team who defeated them early in the season, but New Orleans just dropped a rather shocking game to Incarnate Word and I think this is the perfect revenge spot for Texas AM-CC. Texas AM CC has done a really good job at offensive rebounding and drawing fouls this season and New Orleans ranks 271st in defensive rebounding percentage and 184th in defensive foul rate so I expect them to be able to crash the glass and get to the free throw line. Texas AM CC also has a perfect 6-0 ATS record as an away underdog this year and couple that with the revenge spot, I think this is a very solid spot to back the Islanders. Score Prediction: 84-77 Texas AM-CC