BANKER (Davidson vs. St. Bonaventure)
I’m a tad surprised by this line given how well Davidson has played this season and how St Bonaventure has failed to live up to expectations. I feel like this is more of a preseason line compared to what the line actually should be based off of what has happened this season so because of that, I think there’s value backing Davidson tonight. Davison has one of the best and most efficient offenses in the nation. They are ranked 11th in overall adjusted offensive efficiency, 5th in effective field goal percentage, and 4th in the nation in 3-point shooting as a team so they have shooters all over the court. Davidson has also played very well on the road this season as they’ve racked up some impressive wins against the likes of Alabama, Richmond, VCU, and Charlotte.
St Bonaventure is typically known for their stifling defense but that has dropped off a bit this year as they only rank 158th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 269th in turnover percentage, and 263rd in defy3-point percentage so they haven’t defended the three balls well and do not force a lot of turnovers which will both be problems against this potent Davidson offense. The worry for me here is that St Bonaventure has played well at home and knows that this is close to a must win game to stay alive in the A-10 race but Davidson has been so impressive this year with their offensive efficiency, I don’t think the Bonnies urgency is going to matter and see Davidson getting out of here with a close and hard-fought win. I might even add Davidson 1H as a possible angle as well as St. Bonaventure has started slowing in a lot of their games this year and made fierce comebacks so be on the lookout for that. Score Prediction: 71-67 Davidson
Texas Tech has been one of the hotter teams in the nation over the last couple of weeks and in my opinion, I think they are the toughest team in the nation which should help them in this emotional rivalry game vs Texas. This is also Chris beards return to Texas Tech (Current Texas coach, former TTU coach) and there may be a little added motivation from the Texas tech side against their former coach who left them for their conference rival. But the main reason I like Texas tech here is that they have been excellent at home going 13-0 and have played very good defense in those games as well. They face a Texas team who really struggles to score and nearly blew a 16-point lead to Tennessee in the last 5 minutes as they only scored 1 point in nearly the last 6 minutes of regulation. Texas tech has only had 1 home game this year decided by less than double digits (8-point win vs Kansas) and in that game they were 4-point underdogs as well. I see Texas tech stifling Texas on the offensive end and doing just enough with their offense to get out with a win. Score Prediction: 66-58 Texas Tech
Miami OH is an up and down team out of the MAC who got throttled in their last game against EMU but had a very solid 2H where they nearly came back to make it a game and think they will carry some of that momentum into this game against Kent State. Kent State has really struggled on offense this year as they rank 248th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 292nd in effective field goal percentage, and 340th in 3-point percentage so they are not a good offensive team. Miami OH on the other hand ranks 7th in the country in lowest TO%, 108th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 3rd in free throw percentage so they are a team who takes care of the ball and can get to the free throw line and knock down shots with consistency. I think this is a very good bounce back spot for them after a poor performance and see them playing well here at home and getting back on track with a much-needed win. Score Prediction: 75-69 Miami OH.