BANKER (Ohio vs. Buffalo)
Faded Ohio for an article play last Friday but today I’m rolling with them as I think this is a perfect get right spot for them in a very meaningful game for the MAC title race. It’s hard to explain why but Ohio has played exceptional on the road this season. In all of their road games against everyone not named LSU or Kentucky, they went 5-0 and won with an average margin of victory of 12.4 points. Now they get to face a Buffalo team which is very talented but has played an incredibly weak conference schedule so far and has struggled against teams with good defenses.
Buffalo also lost to Toledo like Ohio, and Buffalo doesn’t have a single win against a top 4 team in the MAC as they lost to Akron and Toledo. Buffalo has struggled on defense at times because of their inability to force turnovers and create more possessions for themselves. They are ranked 326th in the nation in defensive turnover percentage while Ohio ranks 41st in lowest turnover percentage on offense so I expect Ohio to take good care of the ball and get a quality shot on most possessions. Buffalo plays a fairly up-tempo style and uses their size inside with Josh Mballa and Jeenathan Williams to grab offensive rebounds to create more possessions.
Another thing Ohio does well on defensive is rebound the basketball. They are ranked 74th in the country in lowest offensive rebounding percentage allowed so they do a really good job of securing ye basketball and not allowing second chance opportunities. Overall, I think Buffalo probably has slightly more talent than Ohio, but Ohio plays much more fundamentally sound basketball and has the motivation here because they need to stay close to Toledo in the MAC standings. This game will be close, but I think Ohio squeezes out a much-needed win. Score Prediction: 78-74 Ohio
Wyoming has been an absolute wagon this year with both winning straight up and also winning ATS. In this matchup they face a very weak Air Force team who has struggled all year and done very poorly against top tier competition. Air Force lost by 20 to Colorado state. Lost by 7 to Nevada, and lost by 6 to Boise st. While they lost those games, they were fairly competitive and kept things close for a while which is why I’m adding Wyoming to this parlay.
The spread for this game is around 7/8 which could get dicey at the end, but I don’t see Wyoming struggling to win here. I think they’ll use their size and talent advantage to push the pace and create easy buckets. Wyoming is ranked 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 16th in effective FG%, and 5th overall in division 1 in 2-point percentage offense and I don’t believe Air Force has the fire power to stick with them. Score Prediction: 74-64 Wyoming
Cleveland St is a very solid team out of the horizon conference, and I think they’re being undervalued here. They face a Wright St team who is very talented offensively but is a fairly bad defensive team. Wright State is ranked 311thnationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 270th in defensive effective field goal percentage, and 285th in defensive 2-point percentage so they’re very bad on defense.
Cleveland st is a solid offensive team who is capable of putting up 80-90 points as they rank 43rd in 2-point percentage offense, 23rd in drawn foul rate, and 43rd in offensive rebounding percentage so they hit the glass hard and do a lot of damage at the free throw line. I think Cleveland st will also be able to use their experience down the stretch to help them close this game out as they are the 2nd most experienced team in the nation. Score Prediction: 79-74 Cleveland St