BANKER (Fordham vs. Dayton)
Fading Dayton as big favs has been one of my favorite angles over the past 2 years. They simply don’t beat up on the cupcakes like they should and when they get big leads, they frequently lose focus and give up big runs themselves. Saw it earlier this year when they were up by 9 at halftime to Austin Peay and then lost outright as 16-point favorites. They also lost to Umass Lowell as 18.5-point favorites and to Lipscomb as 10-point favs so it’s safe to say they don’t perform well in this spot. Now those games were a long time ago in early November and Dayton has improved as a team since then, but Fordham is also better than all the teams I just mentioned, and Fordham has performed very well this season off a loss and as an underdog.
This season they are 5-2 ATS after a loss including 4-1 ATS as an underdog where they won 3 of those games straight up and nearly knocked off Davidson as they had a big lead at halftime but still easily covered. Fordham is led by 2 very talented transfers in Darius Quisenberry from Youngstown St) and Antonio Daye Jr (From FIU). These two will be the highest scorers in the game as Dayton brings more of a committee approach to their offense as they don’t have anyone averaging over 11 PPG but have 8 players averaging at least 6 PPG. Quisenberry is averaging 18/4/2 on 40% shooting and 36% from deep while Daye is averaging 17/4/3 on 46% shooting and 26% from 3. These 2 are very talented scorers and am an create offense for others as well. I think Dayton will ultimately win this game, but 14 points seems like a lot for a low scoring team like Dayton who doesn’t typically perform well with big spreads, so I’ll take the points with Fordham in this matchup. Score Prediction: 72-65 Dayton
Arizona has proven to be one of the top teams in the nation and I don’t think anyone would argue that. They are firmly one of the 3 best teams without a doubt, and they get one of their toughest tests if the season here on the road against UCLA. Arizona struggled on the road vs Tennessee in their one loss on the season but since then they have been playing incredible as they have won 5 in a row and all by at least 16 points. Arizona has been winning with margin this year as 14 of their 16 wins this season have been by double digits. UCLA is still a very solid team, but they have been struggling ATS and just haven’t passed the eye test lately. In their last 2 games they struggled against Utah and Colorado, 2 middle of the pack PAC-12 teams who are nowhere near as good as Arizona. This line is short because UCLA is at home, but I don’t think their home court advantage is going to help them here and see Arizona coming out of here with a 6–10-point win. Score Prediction: 79-71 Arizona
Northern Kentucky has been a hot and cold team this year as they come into this game with an 8-9 record, but they get a favorable matchup here against a Wright state team who has been playing horrendous defensively as of late. Wright state has been winning with their offense, but their defense ranks 300th in overall adjusted efficiency, 254th in effective field goal percentage, and 274th in defensive 2-point field goal percentage so they have really struggled on that end. Northern Kentucky isn’t a great offensive team, but I think they can take advantage of a porous Wright state defense on their home court. I think this game will be close down the stretch, but I see northern Kentucky being able to squeeze out a close win. Score Prediction: 78-75 Northern Kentucky.