BANKER (Florida A&M vs. Bethune-Cookman)
FAMU is a team that most people haven’t heard of, but they are always a very solid and competitive team out of the SWAC. This year they are off to a 2-9 start but teams from the SWAC always play the toughest non-conference schedules in the nation as they use the money from these big power 5 schools to fund their athletic departments. So even though they are 2-9, they have only had 1 home game against a D1 opponent and are 5-4 ATS so they have been competitive against the number this year as well.
They face a team in Bethune Cookman who in my opinion has been one of the worst 5-10 teams in the nation to this point. Bethune Cookman is in the bottom 13 in the nation in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies. They have also played a very tough schedule to this point and have 1 D1 win over Bryant but their metrics do not point to them matching up well with FAMU here. Most teams in the SWAC will be in the bottom 300 in both offense and defense but FAMU has actually played very well defensively this season and is in the middle of the pack nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
They are also 62nd nationally in turnover percentage on defense so they force a lot of turnovers leading to fast breaks and run outs for their offense. Bethune Cookman is also dreadful at defending 2-point baskets as they are 348th in the country in defensive 2-point percentage defense. FAMU is number one in the country in percentage of their points that come from 2-point baskets so I believe the mismatch in this category is a huge advantage for FAMU and think their toughness and experience will lead them to a win here. Score Prediction: 66-61 Florida A&M
Going with an all SWAC day today as historically Monday slates are smaller but usually filled with SWAC conference games. Alabama State is historically one of the worst teams in the SWAC, but an influx of transfers and freshman has made them very competitive this season. Alabama State is 5-0 ATS this season against power 5 opponents and with most of those games not even coming close to a non-cover. They have been very competitive this year and now they get a matchup against the worst team in College Basketball in Mississippi Valley State.
MVSU is dead last in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, dead last in defensive effective FG%, and dead last in defensive 3P%. They are also 2nd to last in adjusted offensive efficiency so all around they are a horrible team. Alabama states tough schedule should have them prepared well for this matchup and think they’ll come away with a win. Score Prediction: 81-68 Alabama State.
Arkansas pine bluff is another SWAC team that is consistently at the bottom of the conference but again they have played very well this year given their expectations. Arkansas pine bluff is 4-1 ATS against very solid teams including Creighton, Texas, Colorado State, Iowa state and their line non cover against power 5 came against number 1 Baylor. They get a favorable matchup here against an Alabama AM team who most people thought would be better than they actually are to this point.
Alabama AM comes into this game with a 1-9 record with 1 win against a D1 team that came in their very first game of the season and have struggled ever since. Their downfall this season has been their offensive production as they are dead last in the nation in effective field goal percentage, dead last (358th) in 2-point offensive percentage, and 353rd in overall adjusted offensive efficiency. I think Arkansas pine bluff, while being an underdog here, has the home court advantage and should be able to squeeze out a win at home with their defense against a weak Alabama AM offensive attack. Score Prediction: 61-58 Arkansas Pine Bluff.