BANKER (Brown vs. Syracuse)
Stand-alone college basketball game to start the week so I know everyone is going to want to bet this game, but I think there’s some value on the over here. Syracuse is a fairly good offensive team, but they have really struggled on defense so far this year. In their 5 losses this year they have given up an average of 80.4 points per game.
In their 5 wins this year, they have given up an average of 71 points per game so even in their wins their defense has been letting down and they’ve been winning with offense. The zone has been letting them down as they are 173rd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, 247th I’m defensive effective field goal percentage, 243rd in defensive turnover percentage, 312th in allowing offensive rebounds. Brown isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, but I think this is a spot they can take advantage of. Brown is an average 3-point shooting team, but I think we’ll see an uptick in their percentage as Syracuse does not defend the 3 very well.
Brown also played a similar type of game against North Carolina earlier in the season and had them on the ropes as they led at halftime and scored 87 points in a close 94-87 loss. On the other side of the ball, the Syracuse offense has been their bright spot this season. Syracuse is 21st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, 30th in offensive turnover percentage, 51st in free throw percentage, and 72ndin 3-point percentage.
They will also have the best player on the court in Buddy Boeheim who is a matchup nightmare. He can drive to the rim, score in the midrange, and is a very good shooter who can get hit from any time from the outside. Syracuse will also have a distinct height advantage in this matchup as well which should help them in finishing at the rim and grabbing offensive rebounds for added opportunities to score. Bottom line in this game for me is that I don’t trust the Syracuse zone enough to lay -9.5/10 points and I think brown is a good enough offensive team to put up points and keep this game somewhat close.
Syracuse is a very good offense and while I trust their offense, they are a very streaky team who can blow a lead in a hurry. I feel that this total is too low given how good each team is offensively and I also expect this game to be a faster paced game as well. Score Prediction: 79-71 Syracuse