How to Find Value Betting

The most successful sports bettors manage to seek out great value on a consistent basis. This
article provides some tips to help you extract maximum value when visiting online sports
betting sites.

Shop Around for Your Odds

It is vital that you use a sophisticated odds comparison tool to find the best available prices on
any betting option you like. You should hold accounts with several different sportsbooks to
ensure you can quickly grab the best odds on each game.

Consider Props Bets and Same Game Parlays

It is often difficult to find much value when betting on a favorite to win a game. For example,
you might find odds of 1.25 (1/4 or -400) on Chelsea to beat Burnley. That means you will
earn just €1 for every €4 you wager if the Blues win the game.

If you want more value, look a little further down the list and you will find all sorts of
interesting options. For example, you might find odds of 1.85 on Chelsea to win to nil, 1.80 on
Chelsea to win at half-time and full-time, 2.25 on Chelsea -2 Asian handicap or 9.00 on
Chelsea to win 3-0.

You can also create a bet known as a same game multi or a same game parlay using the bet
builder too. You might go for Chelsea to win and over 2.5 goals, Chelsea to win and under 4.5
goals, Chelsea to win and both teams to score, or Chelsea to win and Kai Havertz to score.

All of these options give you extra value when betting on a big team that is playing against a
relative minnow. Just try not to add too many options to any same game accumulator, because
the house edge will continue to increase.

Understand the Expected Value on Each Bet

Sports betting odds tell you the profit you can expect to receive if your bet is successful. For
example, if you see odds of 2.76 on Juventus to beat AC Milan, it tells you to expect €1.76 in
profit for every €1 you bet.

However, the odds also tell you the implied probability of a bet paying off. You can use this
to understand the expected value (EV) available on each game.

For example, let’s say Real Madrid are priced at 1.26 to beat Getafe, the draw is 6.50 and
Getafe are 13.50, and you think Getafe might pull off a shock win. The odds tell you that the
implied probability of Getafe winning the game is 7.4%, while the chance of Real Madrid
winning or the draw is 94.6%.

You can use this formula to calculate the expected value on each option:

(Probability of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost
per Bet)

In this example, if you wanted to bet €10 on Getafe, you would be looking at a €125 profit if
successful.

You could then calculate: (0.074 x €125) – (0.946 x €10) = €0.20.

It warns you that there is a negative expected value of €0.20 for every €10 staked. If you can
find a bookmaker offering better odds on Getafe – perhaps one site is offering 15.00 – you will
get a positive expected value, and you might then decide to bet on them.

Find Opportunities for Arbing

Understanding the EV on each betting option helps you spot arbitrage opportunities. That
allows you to exploit the differences between the odds available on the same game at rival
sportsbooks.

You might discover a positive EV on each of the three outcomes – home win, draw, and away
win – by placing bets with three different sportsbooks, thus locking in a guaranteed profit, no
matter what the result is.

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